Childhood risk factors for criminal career duration: Comparisons with prevalence, onset, frequency and recidivism
Corresponding Author
David P. Farrington
Emeritus Professor of Psychological Criminology, Cambridge University, Institute of Criminology, Cambridge, UK
Correspondence
David P. Farrington, Emeritus Professor of Psychological Criminology, Cambridge University, Institute of Criminology, Sidgwick Avenue, Cambridge, CB3 9DA, UK.
Email: dpf1@cam.ac.uk
Search for more papers by this authorCorresponding Author
David P. Farrington
Emeritus Professor of Psychological Criminology, Cambridge University, Institute of Criminology, Cambridge, UK
Correspondence
David P. Farrington, Emeritus Professor of Psychological Criminology, Cambridge University, Institute of Criminology, Sidgwick Avenue, Cambridge, CB3 9DA, UK.
Email: dpf1@cam.ac.uk
Search for more papers by this authorAbstract
It has been argued that the predictors of all criminal career features are the same, and that childhood risk factors do not predict life-course-persistent offenders. Little is known about childhood predictors of the duration of criminal careers. The aim is to investigate childhood (aged 8–10 years) risk factors for criminal career duration, in comparison with childhood risk factors for other criminal career features. The Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development is a prospective longitudinal survey of 411 South London males from age 8, with conviction records up to age 61. Life-course-persistent (LCP) offenders were defined as those with a criminal career lasting at least 20 years. The strongest predictors of LCP offenders were harsh discipline, poor parental supervision, a convicted father and parental conflict. Childhood risk factors for LCP offenders and criminal career duration were different from childhood risk factors for the prevalence of offending (convicted versus unconvicted males). These results should be taken into account in developmental and life-course criminology theories, risk assessment instruments and risk-focused interventions.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST
The authors declare no potential conflict of interest.
Open Research
DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT
The childhood risk factor data are openly available from the U.S. National Archive of Criminal Justice Data in Michigan. The criminal record data cannot be shared because of ethical, privacy and data protection issues.
REFERENCES
- Assink, M., van der Put, C. E., Hoeve, M., de Vries, S. L. A., Stams, G. J. J. M., & Oort, F. J. (2015). Risk factors for persistent delinquent behavior among juveniles: A meta-analytic review. Clinical Psychology Review, 42, 47–61.
- Cottle, C. C., Lee, R. J., & Heilbrun, K. (2001). The prediction of criminal recidivism in juveniles: A meta-analysis. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 28, 367–394.
- Farrington, D. P. (1992). Criminal career research in the United Kingdom. British Journal of Criminology, 32, 521–536.
- Farrington, D. P. (1995). The development of offending and antisocial behaviour from childhood: Key findings from the Cambridge study in delinquent development. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry, 36, 929–964.
- Farrington, D. P. (2003). Key results from the first 40 years of the Cambridge study in delinquent development. In T. P. Thornberry & M. D. Krohn (Eds.), Taking stock of delinquency: An overview of findings from contemporary longitudinal studies (pp. 137–183). New York, NY: Kluwer/Plenum.
- Farrington, D. P. (2015). The developmental evidence base: Psychosocial research. In D. Crighton & G. J. Towl (Eds.), Forensic psychology ( 2nd ed., pp. 161–181). Chichester: Wiley.
- Farrington, D. P. (2019a). Childhood risk and protective factors for early desisters, late desisters, and life-course-persistent offenders. Revista Espanola de Investigacion Criminologica (Spanish Journal of Criminological Research), 17, 1–33.
- Farrington, D. P. (2019b). The Cambridge study in delinquent development. In D. Eaves, C. D. Webster, Q. Haque, & J. Eaves-Thalken (Eds.), Risk rules: A practical guide to structured professional judgment and violence prevention (pp. 225–233). Hove, UK: Pavilion Publishing.
- Farrington, D. P. (2019c). The duration of criminal careers: How many offenders do not desist up to age 61? Journal of Developmental and Life-Course Criminology, 5, 4–21.
- Farrington, D. P. (2020). Interactions between resting heart rate and childhood risk factors in predicting convictions and antisocial personality scores. Crime and Delinquency in press.
- Farrington, D. P., Coid, J. W., Harnett, L., Jolliffe, D., Soteriou, N., Turner, R., & West, D. J. (2006). Criminal Careers up to age 50 and life success up to age 48: New findings from the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development. London: Home Office (Research Study No. 299).
- Farrington, D. P., Coid, J. W., & West, D. J. (2009). The development of offending from age 8 to age 50: Recent results from the Cambridge study in delinquent development. Monatsschrift Fur Kriminologie Und Strafrechtsreform (Journal of Criminology and Penal Reform), 92, 160–173.
- Farrington, D. P., Gaffney, H., & Ttofi, M. M. (2017). Systematic reviews of explanatory risk factors for violence, offending, and delinquency. Aggression and Violent Behavior, 33, 24–36.
- Farrington, D. P., & Hawkins, J. D. (1991). Predicting participation, early onset, and later persistence in officially recorded offending. Criminal Behaviour and Mental Health, 1, 1–33.
10.1002/cbm.1991.1.1.1 Google Scholar
- Farrington, D. P., Lambert, S., & West, D. J. (1998). Criminal careers of two generations of family members in the Cambridge study in delinquent development. Studies on Crime and Crime Prevention, 7, 85–106.
- Farrington, D. P., & Loeber, R. (2000). Some benefits of dichotomization in psychiatric and criminological research. Criminal Behaviour and Mental Health, 10, 100–122.
10.1002/cbm.349 Google Scholar
- Farrington, D. P., & Malvaso, C. G. (2019). Physical punishment and offending in two successive generations of males. In I. Bryce, Y. Robinson, & W. Petherick (Eds.), Child abuse and neglect: Forensic issues in evidence, impact and management (pp. 203–224). London, England: Academic Press.
10.1016/B978-0-12-815344-4.00011-8 Google Scholar
- Farrington, D. P., Piquero, A. R., & Jennings, W. G. (2013). Offending from childhood to late middle age: Recent results from the Cambridge study in delinquent development. New York, NY: Springer.
10.1007/978-1-4614-6105-0 Google Scholar
- Farrington, D. P., Ttofi, M. M., & Coid, J. W. (2009). Development of adolescence-limited, late-onset and persistent offenders from age 8 to age 48. Aggressive Behavior, 35, 150–163.
- Farrington, D. P., Ttofi, M. M., Crago, R. V., & Coid, J. W. (2014). Prevalence, frequency, onset, desistance and criminal career duration in self-reports compared with official records. Criminal Behaviour and Mental Health, 24, 241–253.
- Farrington, D. P., Ttofi, M. M., & Piquero, A. R. (2016). Risk, promotive, and protective factors in youth offending: Results from the Cambridge study in delinquent development. Journal of Criminal Justice, 45, 63–70.
- Farrington, D. P., & West, D. J. (1981). The Cambridge study in delinquent development (United Kingdom). In S. A. Mednick & A. E. Baert (Eds.), Prospective longitudinal research (pp. 137–145). Oxford: Oxford University Press.
- Farrington, D. P., & West, D. J. (1990). The Cambridge study in delinquent development: A long-term follow-up of 411 London males. In H.-J. Kerner & G. Kaiser (Eds.), Kriminalitat:Personlichkeit, lebensgeschichte und verhalten (Criminality: Personality, behavior and life history) (pp. 115–138). Berlin, Germany: Springer-Verlag.
10.1007/978-3-642-75418-0_9 Google Scholar
- Farrington, D. P., & Wikstrom, P.-O. H. (1994). Criminal careers in London and Stockholm: A cross-national comparative study. In E. G. M. Weitekamp & H.-J. Kerner (Eds.), Cross-national longitudinal research on human development and criminal behaviour (pp. 65–89). Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Kluwer.
- Gibson, H. B. (1967). Teachers' ratings of schoolboys' behaviour related to patterns of scores on the new junior Maudsley inventory. British Journal of Educational Psychology, 37, 347–355.
- Gibson, H. B. (1968). The measurement of parental attitudes and their relation to boys' behaviour. British Journal of Educational Psychology, 38, 233–239.
- Gottfredson, M. R., & Hirschi, T. (1990). A general theory of crime. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
10.1515/9781503621794 Google Scholar
- Jolliffe, D., Farrington, D. P., Piquero, A. R., Loeber, R., & Hill, K. G. (2017). Systematic review of early risk factors for life-course-persistent, adolescence-limited and late-onset offenders in prospective longitudinal studies. Aggression and Violent Behavior, 33, 15–23.
- Jolliffe, D., Farrington, D. P., Piquero, A. R., Macleod, J. F., & Van de Weijer, S. (2017). Prevalence of life-course persistent, adolescence-limited and late-onset offenders: A systematic review of prospective longitudinal studies. Aggression and Violent Behavior, 33, 4–14.
- Kazemian, L., & Farrington, D. P. (2006). Exploring residual career length and residual number of offenses for two generations of repeat offenders. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 43, 89–113.
- Kazemian, L., & Farrington, D. P. (2015). The developmental evidence base: Desistance. In D. Crighton & G. J. Towl (Eds.), Forensic psychology ( 2nd ed., pp. 183–199). Chichester: Wiley.
- Kazemian, L., & Farrington, D. P. (2018). Advancing knowledge about residual criminal careers: A follow-up to age 56 from the Cambridge study in delinquent development. Journal of Criminal Justice, 57, 1–10.
- Lipsey, M. W., Wilson D. B. Practical meta-analysis. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage; 2001.
- Moffitt, T. E. (1993). Adolescence-limited and life-course-persistent antisocial behavior: A developmental taxonomy. Psychological Review, 100, 674–701.
- Moffitt, T. E. (2018). Male antisocial behaviour in adolescence and beyond. Nature Human Behaviour, 2(3), 177–186.
- Piquero, A. R., Farrington, D. P., & Blumstein, A. (2007). Key issues in criminal career research: New analyses of the Cambridge study in delinquent development. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
10.1017/CBO9780511499494 Google Scholar
- Sampson, R. J., & Laub, J. H. (2003). Life-course desisters? Trajectories of crime among delinquent boys followed to age 70. Criminology, 41, 301–339.
- Scott, T., & Brown, S. L. (2018). Risks, strengths, gender, and recidivism among justice-involved youth: A meta-analysis. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 86, 931–945.
- West, D. J. (1969). Present conduct and future delinquency. London, England: Heinemann.
- West, D. J. (1982). Delinquency: Its roots, careers and prospects. London, England: Heinemann.
- West, D. J., & Farrington, D. P. (1973). Who becomes delinquent? London, England: Heinemann.
- West, D. J., & Farrington, D. P. (1977). The delinquent way of life. London, England: Heinemann.
- Whitten, T., McGee, T. R., Homel, R., Farrington, D. P., & Ttofi, M. M. (2019). Comparing the criminal careers and childhood risk factors of persistent, chronic, and persistent-chronic offenders. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Criminology, 52, 151–173.
- Wolfgang, M. E., Figlio, R. M., & Sellin, T. (1972). Delinquency in a birth cohort. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
- Zara, G., & Farrington, D. P. (2019). Unsuccessful life style in middle-aged official and self-reported types of offenders. Journal of Criminal Justice, 64, 34–42.
- Zara, G., & Farrington, D. P. (2020). Childhood risk factors for self-reported versus official life-course-persistent, adolescence-limited and late onset offending. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 47, 352–368.