Monetary Policy and Global Banking
FALK BRÄUNING
Search for more papers by this authorCorresponding Author
VICTORIA IVASHINA
Bräuning is with the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and Ivashina is with Harvard Business School, NBER, and CEPR. We thank seminar participants at the AFA 2017, Bank of Canada, Banque de France, Copenhagen Business School, Duke University, European Central Bank, FRIC Annual Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Federal Reserve Board, Global Research Forum on International Macroeconomics and Finance 2016, IBEFA Summer Meeting 2016, IMF Spillover Workshop, NBER Summer Institute 2016, Nova School of Business and Economics, UIUC, University of Miami, University of Porto, and WCWIF 2016 for helpful comments. We are particularly grateful to François Gourio; Stefan Nagel (Editor); Ali Ozdagli; Joe Peek; Jeremy Stein; Jenny Tang; Christina Wang; two anonymous referees; and our discussants Morten Bech, Nicola Cetorelli, Stijn Claessens, Ricardo Correa, Linda Goldberg, Michael Hutchison, Jose Lopez, Teodora Paligorova, and Skander Van den Heuvel for detailed feedback. Botao Wu, Kovid Puria, and Sam Tugendhaft provided remarkable research assistance. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston or the Federal Reserve System. We have read The Journal of Finance’s disclosure policy and have no conflict of interest related to this research.
Correspondence: Victoria Ivashina, Harvard Business School, Baker Library, Bloomberg Center 233, Boston, MA 02163; e-mail: vivashina@hbs.edu.
Search for more papers by this authorFALK BRÄUNING
Search for more papers by this authorCorresponding Author
VICTORIA IVASHINA
Bräuning is with the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and Ivashina is with Harvard Business School, NBER, and CEPR. We thank seminar participants at the AFA 2017, Bank of Canada, Banque de France, Copenhagen Business School, Duke University, European Central Bank, FRIC Annual Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Federal Reserve Board, Global Research Forum on International Macroeconomics and Finance 2016, IBEFA Summer Meeting 2016, IMF Spillover Workshop, NBER Summer Institute 2016, Nova School of Business and Economics, UIUC, University of Miami, University of Porto, and WCWIF 2016 for helpful comments. We are particularly grateful to François Gourio; Stefan Nagel (Editor); Ali Ozdagli; Joe Peek; Jeremy Stein; Jenny Tang; Christina Wang; two anonymous referees; and our discussants Morten Bech, Nicola Cetorelli, Stijn Claessens, Ricardo Correa, Linda Goldberg, Michael Hutchison, Jose Lopez, Teodora Paligorova, and Skander Van den Heuvel for detailed feedback. Botao Wu, Kovid Puria, and Sam Tugendhaft provided remarkable research assistance. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston or the Federal Reserve System. We have read The Journal of Finance’s disclosure policy and have no conflict of interest related to this research.
Correspondence: Victoria Ivashina, Harvard Business School, Baker Library, Bloomberg Center 233, Boston, MA 02163; e-mail: vivashina@hbs.edu.
Search for more papers by this authorABSTRACT
When central banks adjust interest rates, the opportunity cost of lending in local currency changes, but—absent frictions—there is no spillover effect to lending in other currencies. However, when equity capital is limited, global banks must benchmark domestic and foreign lending opportunities. We show that, in equilibrium, the marginal return on foreign lending is affected by the interest rate differential, with lower domestic rates leading to an increase in local lending, at the expense of a reduction in foreign lending. We test our prediction in the context of changes in interest rates in six major currency areas.
Supporting Information
Filename | Description |
---|---|
jofi12959-sup-0001-OnlineAppendix.pdf407.7 KB | Appendix S1: Internet Appendix. |
jofi12959-sup-0002-ReplicationCode.zip5.1 KB | Replication Code. |
Please note: The publisher is not responsible for the content or functionality of any supporting information supplied by the authors. Any queries (other than missing content) should be directed to the corresponding author for the article.
REFERENCES
- Acharya, Viral, Gara Afonso, and Anna Kovner, 2013, How do global banks scramble for liquidity? Evidence from the asset-backed commercial paper freeze of 2007, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports no. 623.
- Acharya, Viral, and Philipp Schnabl, 2010, Do global banks spread global imbalances? Asset-backed commercial paper during the financial crisis of 2007–09, IMF Economic Review 58, 37–73.
- Baskaya, Yusuf, Julian di Giovanni, Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, José-Luis Peydró, and Mehmet Ulu, 2017, Capital flows and the international credit channel, Journal of International Economics 108, S15–S22.
- Bernanke, Ben S., and Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2005, What explains the stock market's reaction to Federal Reserve policy, Journal of Finance 60, 1221–1257.
- Bord, Vitaly, Victoria Ivashina, and Ryan Taliaferro, 2015, Large banks and the transmission of financial shocks, Working paper, Harvard University.
- Bräuning, Falk, and Victoria Ivashina, 2020, U.S. monetary policy and emerging market credit cycles, Journal of Monetary Economics 112, 57–76.
- Bruno, Valentina, and Hyun S. Shin, 2015, Cross-border banking and global liquidity, The Review of Economic Studies 82, 535–564.
- Bruno, Valentina, and Hyun S. Shin, 2017, Global dollar credit and carry trades: A firm-level analysis, Review of Financial Studies 30, 703–749.
- Cetorelli, Nicola, and Linda Goldberg, 2011, Global banks and international shock transmission: Evidence from the crisis, International Monetary Fund Economic Review 59, 41–76.
- Cetorelli, Nicola, and Linda Goldberg, 2012, Banking globalization and monetary transmission, Journal of Finance 67, 1811–1843.
- Chava, Sudheer, and Amiyatosh Purnanandam, 2011, The effect of banking crisis on bank-dependent borrowers, Journal of Financial Economics 99, 116–135.
- Colacito, Ric, Mariano M. Croce, Federico Gavazzoni, and Robert Ready, 2018, Currency risk factors in a recursive multicountry economy, Journal of Finance 73, 2719–2756.
- Correa, Ricardo, Horacio Sapriza, and Andrei Zlate, 2016, Liquidity shocks, dollar funding costs and the bank lending channel during the European sovereign crisis, Working paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Cosimano, Thomas, and Bill McDonald, 1998, What's different among banks? Journal of Monetary Economics 41, 57–70.
- Diamond, D., 1984, Financial intermediation and delegated monitoring, Review of Economic Studies 51, 393–414.
- Diamond, Douglas, 1991, Monitoring and reputation: The choice between bank loans and directly placed debt, Journal of Political Economy 99, 689–721.
- Eichenbaum, Martin, and Charles L. Evans, 1995, Some empirical evidence on the effects of shocks to monetary policy on exchange rates, Quarterly Journal of Economics 110, 975–1009.
- Engel, Charles, 2014, Exchange rates and interest parity, in G. Gopinath, Elhanan Helpman, and Kenneth Rogoff, eds., Handbook of International Economics 4 (Elsevier, North Holland).
10.1016/B978-0-444-54314-1.00008-2 Google Scholar
- Fama, Eugene, 1985, What's different about banks? Journal of Monetary Economics 15, 29–39.
- Fender, Ingo, and Patrick McGuire, 2010, Bank structure, funding risk and the transmission of shocks across countries: Concepts and measurements, BIS Quarterly Review September, 63–79.
- Gabaix, Xavier, and Matteo Maggiori, 2015, International liquidity and exchange rate dynamics, Quarterly Journal of Economics 130, 1369–1420.
- Giannetti, Mariassunta, and Luc Laeven, 2012, The flight home effect: Evidence from the syndicated loan market during financial crises, Journal of Financial Economics 104, 23–43.
- Gurkaynak, Refet S., Bilkent Sack, and Eric T. Swanson, 2007, Market-based measures of monetary policy expectations, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 25, 201–212.
- Hassan, Tarek A., and Rui C. Mano, 2019, Forward and spot exchange rates in a multi-currency world, Quarterly Journal of Economics 134, 397–450.
- Ivashina, Victoria, David Scharfstein, and Jeremy Stein, 2015, Dollar funding and the lending behavior of global banks, Quarterly Journal of Economics 130, 1241–1282.
- Jimenez, Gabriel, Steven Ongena, José-Luis Peydró and Jesús Saurina, 2012, Credit supply and monetary policy: Identifying the bank balance-sheet channel with loan applications, American Economic Review 102, 2301–2326.
- Kashyap, Anil, Rajan Raghuram, and Jeremy Stein, 2002, Banks as liquidity providers: An explanation for coexistence of lending and deposit-taking, Journal of Finance 57, 33–73.
- Kashyap, Anil, and Jeremy Stein, 2000, What do a million observations on banks say about the transmission of monetary policy? American Economic Review 90, 407–428.
- Lustig, Hanno, Nikolai Roussanov, and Adrien Verdelhan, 2011, Common risk factors in currency markets, Review of Financial Studies 24, 3731–3777.
- Martin, Antoine, James McAndrews, and David Skeie, 2013, Bank lending in times of large bank reserves, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports no. 497.
- McCauley, Robert, and Patrick McGuire, 2014, “Non-U.S. banks' claims on the Federal Reserve, BIS Quarterly Review March, 89–97.
- McCauley, Robert, Patrick McGuire, and Vladyslav Sushko, 2015, Dollar credit to emerging market economies, BIS Quarterly Review December, 27–41.
- McGuire, Patrick, and Goetz von Peter, 2012, The U.S. dollar shortage in global banking and the international policy response, International Finance 15, 155–178.
- Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia, and Hélène Rey, 2019, U.S. monetary policy and the global financial cycle, Working paper, NBER.
- Morais, Bernardo, José-Luis Peydró, Jessica Roldán-Peña, and Claudia Ruiz, 2019, The international bank lending channel of monetary policy rates and quantitative easing: Credit supply, reach-for-yield, and real effects, Journal of Finance 74, 55–90.
- Mueller, Philippe, Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, and Andrea Vedolin, 2017, Exchange rates and monetary policy uncertainty, Journal of Finance 72, 1213–1252.
- Nakamura, Emi, and Jón Steinsson, 2017, High frequency identification of monetary non-neutrality: The information effect, Quarterly Journal of Economics 133, 1283–1330.
- Ongena, Steven, Ibolya Schindele, and Dzsamila Vonnák, 2016, In lands of foreign currency credit, bank lending channels run through? Working paper, Central Bank of Hungary.
- Peek, Joe, and Eric Rosengren, 1997, The international transmission of financial shocks: The case of Japan, American Economic Review 87, 495–505.
- Peek, Joe, and Eric Rosengren, 2000, Collateral damage: Effects of the Japanese bank crisis on real activity in the United States, American Economic Review 90, 30–45.
- Rajan, Raghuram, 1992, Insiders and outsiders: The choice between relationship and arm's length debt, Journal of Finance 47, 1367–1400.
- Rey, Hélène, 2018, Dilemma not trilemma: The global financial cycle and monetary policy independence, Working paper, NBER.
- Schnabl, Philipp, 2012, The international transmission of bank liquidity shocks: Evidence from an emerging market, Journal of Finance 67, 897–932.
- Shah, Nihar, 2018, Monetary spillovers in financial markets: Policymakers and premia, Working paper, Harvard.
- Takáts, Előd, and Judit Temesvary, 2016, The currency dimension of the bank lending channel in international monetary transmission, Bank for International Settlements Working Papers No. 600.
- Wiriadinata, Ursula, 2018, External debt, currency risk, and international monetary policy transmission, Working paper, International Monetary Fund.
- World Bank, 2008, Global development finance: The role of international banking, Report 44981.
- Zhang, Tony, 2019, Monetary policy spillovers through invoicing currencies, Working paper, Boston University.