Original Article
Maritime CBMs as Soft Deterrence in Northeast Asia: A Sea of Paradox and its Remedies
Kil Joo Ban,
Corresponding Author
Kil Joo Ban
The Korea Institute for Maritime Strategy, South Korea
Email: raybankj@gmail.comSearch for more papers by this authorKil Joo Ban,
Corresponding Author
Kil Joo Ban
The Korea Institute for Maritime Strategy, South Korea
Email: raybankj@gmail.comSearch for more papers by this authorFirst published: 25 November 2020
Abstract
Sources of conflict exist in Northeast Asian waters, ranging from maritime territorial disputes, such as the Senkaku (Diaoyu) Islands, to friction over maritime airspace within air defense identification zones (ADIZs), and in the great power competition between the United States and China. Sources of cooperation, such as anti-piracy coordination, also exist in these waters. These two seas coexist despite their incompatible nature. How to guarantee maritime security in the region had been examined primarily through the concept of deterrence, which relies on a coercion-led mechanism. A functional balance of military capabilities can play a pivotal role in preventing disputes from escalating into military conflict. Without proper transparent measures, however, states in the region can face a security-dilemma in the form of an unstoppable arms race. Thus, military armament should be supported by confidence armament for maritime security in Northeast Asia. When hard deterrence is implemented simultaneously with maritime confidence-building measures (MCBMs) as a soft deterrence, which is a voluntary-basis mechanism, maritime security is more likely to be guaranteed. Likewise, when both military and confidence-building measures are made simultaneously, the logic of smart deterrence is more likely to be successfully manifested, contributing to making regional stability more sustainable.
References
- Achen, Christopher and Duncan Snidal. “Rational Deterrence Theory and Comparative Case Studies,” World Politics, 41-2, (1989), pp. 143–169.
- Allison, Graham, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap (Boston: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2017).
- Ban, Kil Joo, “Sŭmat'ŭ ŏkchi: ‘kunsaryŏk’ kuch'ukkwa ‘silloe’ kuch'uk pyŏngaengŭlt'ongan haeyanganbo sinŏji ch'angch'ul,” (Smart Deterrence: Creating Synergy by Both Military and Confidence Build-ups),” KIMS Periscope, 188 (2020), pp. 1–5. at <http://www.kims.or.kr/peri188/> (searched date: 30 June 2020).
- Berejikian, Jeffrey D., “A Cognitive Theory of Deterrence,” Journal of Peace Research, 39-2 (2002), pp. 165–183.
- Blanchard, Jean-Marc F., “The U.S. Role in the Sino-Japanese Dispute over the Diaoyu (Senkaku) Islands, 1945-1971,” The China Quarterly, 161 (2000), pp. 95–123.
10.1017/S0305741000003957 Google Scholar
- Booth, William and Amie Ferris-Rotman, “Russia's Suez Canal? Ships start plying a less-icy Arctic, thanks to climate change,” The Washington Post (8 September 2018), at <https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/russias-suez-canal-ships-start-plying-an-ice-free-arctic-thanks-to-climate-change/2018/09/08/59d50986-ac5a-11e8-9a7d-cd30504ff902_story.html> (searched date: 31 January 2020).
- Borghard, Erica D. and Shawn W. Lonergan, “Confidence Building Measures for the Cyber Domain,” Strategic Studies Quarterly, 12-3 (2018), pp. 10–49.
- Brands, Hal and Zack Cooper, “Getting Serious About Strategy in the South China Sea,” Naval War College Review, 71-1 (2018), pp. 12–32.
- Brandt, Danielle A, “USS George Washington Welcomes Guests of All ages,” America's Navy (21 July 2010), at < https://www.navy.mil/submit/display.asp?story_id=54850> (searched date: 23 January 2020).
- Cheema, Pervez Iqbal, “What CBMs have gained until now,” Kashmir: What Next? (Islamabad: Friedrich-Naumann-Stiftung, 2001).
- Dutton, Peter A., “Air Defense Identification Zones outside Sovereign Airspace,” The American Journal of International Law, 103-4 (2009), pp. 691–709.
- Emamjomehzadeh, Seyed Javad and Houri Jahanshahrad, “Regional Security Regime, Confidence and Security Building Measures within the Context of Arab- Israeli Disputes,” Alternatives, 2-3,4 (2003), pp. 63–85.
- Erickson, Andrew S. and Austin M. Strange, “China's Blue Soft Power: Antipiracy, Engagement, and Image Enhancement,” Naval War College Review, 68-1 (2015), pp. 71–92.
- Fitzsimmons, Michael, “Horizontal Escalation: An Asymmetric Approach to Russian Aggression?” Strategic Studies Quarterly, 13-1 (2019), pp. 95–133.
- Freedman, Lawrence, Evolution of Nuclear Strategy (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2003).
10.1057/9780230379435 Google Scholar
- Fuente, de la Pedro Luis, “Confidence-Building Measures in the Southern Cone: A Model for Regional Stability,” Naval War College Review, 50-1 (1997), pp. 36–65.
- Gady, Franz-Stefan, “Japan to Convert Izumo-Class Into F-35-Carrying Aircraft Carrier,” The Diplomat (12 December 2018), at <https://thediplomat.com/2018/12/japan-to-convert-izumo-class-into-f-35-carrying-aircraft-carrier/> (searched date: 26 February 2020).
- Gao, Zhiguo and Bing Bing Jia, “The Nine-Dash Line in the South China Sea: History, Status, and Implications,” The American Journal of International Law, 107-1 (2013), pp. 98–124.
- George, Alexander L. and Richard Smoke, “Deterrence and Foreign Policy,” World Politics, 41-2 (1989), pp. 170–182.
- Giannetti, William, “Piercing the Fog of Data: Using Activity Based Intelligence to Combat the North Korea Missile Program,” Air & Space Power Journal (Spring, (2018. 32(1): 96–102.
- Graham, Euan, “Divining the Fluid Element From Cooperation to Conflict in Japan-China Maritime Relations,” Security Challenges, 11-1 (2015), pp. 49–72.
- Haffa, Robert P., “The Future of Conventional Deterrence: Strategies for Great Power Competition,” Strategic Studies Quarterly, 12-4 (2018), pp. 94–115.
- Hao, Su, “The U.S. Maritime Strategy's New Thinking Reviewing the ‘Cooperative Strategy for 21 Century Seapower,” Naval War College Review, 61-4 (2008), pp. 68–72.
- Harknett, Richard, “The logic of conventional deterrence and the end of the Cold War,” Security Studies, 4-1 (1994), pp. 86–114.
10.1080/09636419409347576 Google Scholar
- Henry, Ryan and Christine Osowski, Peter Chalk and James T (Bartis: Promoting International Security (RAND Corporation, 2012).
- ISDP (Institute for Security and Development Policy), “THHAD on the Korean Peninsula” (October 2017), at <https://isdp.eu/publication/korea-thaad/> (searched date: 30 January 2020).
- IUCN. (1982). UNCLOS, at <https://www.iucn.org/theme/marine-and-polar/our-work/international-ocean-governance/unclos> (searched date: 29 January 2020).
- Javaid, Umbreen, “Confidence Building Measures in Nuclear South Asia: Limitations and Prospects,” South Asian Studies, 25-2 (2010), pp. 341–359.
- Karako, Thomas, “Missile Defense and the Nuclear Posture Review,” Strategic Studies Quarterly, 11-3 (2017), pp. 51–53.
- Kim, Duk-Ki, “The Republic of Korea's Counter-Asymmetric Strategy: Lessons from ROKS Cheonan and Yeonpyeong Island,” Naval War College Review, 65-1 (2012), pp. 55–74.
- Kim, Ki-jung and Bo-hyuk Suh, “How to Move from Confrontation to Military Confidence-building,” Global Asia, 14-2 (2019), pp. 18–24.
- Kim, Nan, “Korea on the Brink: Reading the Yŏnp'yŏng Shelling and its Aftermath,” The Journal of Asian Studies, 70-2 (2011), pp. 337–356.
- Kim, Suk Kyoon, “Understanding Maritime Disputes in Northeast Asia: Issues and Nature,” The International Journal of Marine and Coastal Law, 23 (2008), pp. 213–247.
- Kimura, Masato and David A. Welch, “Specifying ‘Interests’: Japan's Claim to the Northern Territories and Its Implications for International Relations Theory,” International Studies Quarterly, 42-2 (1998), pp. 213–243.
- Lebow, Richard Ned and Janice Gross Stein, “Deterrence: The Elusive Dependent Variable,” World Politics, 42-3 (1990), pp. 336–369.
- Lebow, Richard Ned and Janice Gross Stein, We All Lost the Cold War (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1994).
- Lee, Yusin and Sangjoon Kim, “Dividing Seabed Hydrocarbon Resources in East Asia: A Comparative Analysis of the East China Sea and the Caspian Sea,” Asian Survey, 48-5 (2008), pp. 794–815.
- Lei, Zhao, “Liaoning departs for Pacific drill,” China Daily (26 December 2016), at <http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2016-12/26/content_27770967.htm> (searched date: 30 January 2020).
- Levite, Ariel E. and Emily B. Landau, “Confidence and Security Building Measures in the Middle East,” Journal of Strategic Studies, 20-1 (1997), pp. 143–171.
- Liff, Adam P. and G. John Ikenberry, “Racing toward Tragedy? China's Rise, Military Competition in the Asia Pacific, and the Security Dilemma,” International Security, 39-2 (2014), pp. 52–91.
- Lin, Cheng-yi, “Confidence-Building Measures in the Taiwan Strait,” American Foreign Policy Interests, 23 (2001), pp. 87–98.
10.1080/108039201750463326 Google Scholar
- Lin, Chong-Pin, “Behind Rising East Asian Maritime Tensions with China: Struggle without Breaking,” Asian Survey, 55-3 (2015), pp. 478–501.
- Lupovici, Amir, “The Emerging Wave of Deterrence Theory-Toward a New Research Agenda,” International Studies Quarterly, 54-3 (2010), pp. 705–732.
- Manicom, James, “Japan's Ocean Policy: Still the Reactive State,” Pacific Affairs, 83-2 (2010), pp. 307–326.
- Mearsheimer, John J., Conventional Deterrence (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1983).
- Mearsheimer, John J., “Conventional Deterrence: An Interview with John J. Mearsheimer,” Strategic Studies Quarterly, 12-4 (2018), pp. 3–8.
- Mobley, Terry, “The Belt and Road Initiative,” Strategic Studies Quarterly, 13-3 (2019), pp. 52–72.
- Mueller, Karl P., “Conventional Deterrence Redux: Avoiding Great Power Conflict in the 21st Century,” Strategic Studies Quarterly, 12-4 (2018), pp. 76–93.
- NTI, “North Korea: Nuclear” (October 2018), at <https://www.nti.org/learn/countries/north-korea/nuclear/> (searched date: 30 January 2020).
- Panda, Ankit, “North Korea Finally Unveils the Pukguksong-3 SLBM: First Takeaways,” The Diplomat (3 October 2019), at <https://thediplomat.com/2019/10/north-korea-finally-unveils-the-pukguksong-3-slbm-first-takeaways/> (searched date: 30 January 2020).
- Rittberger, Volker, Manfred Efinger, Martin Mendler, “Toward an East-West Security Regime: The Case of Confidence-and Security-Building Measures,” Journal of Peace Research, 27-1 (1990), pp. 55–74.
- Schelling, Thomas C., Arms and Influence (Connecticut: Yale University Press, 1996).
- Scott, David, “Conflict Irresolution in the South China Sea,” Asian Survey, 52-6 (2012), pp. 1019–1042.
- Shigeki, Sakamoto, “The Senkaku Islands as Viewed through Chinese Law,” Review of Island Studies (12 September 2016), at <https://www.spf.org/islandstudies/research/a00017r.html> (searched date: 26 January 2010).
- Shin, Hyonhee, “South Korea scrambled jets to warn Russian warplanes in air defense zone,” REUTERS (22 October 2019), at <https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southkorea-russia-airspace/south-korea-scrambled-jets-to-warn-russian-warplanes-in-air-defense-zone-idUSKBN1X10QQ> (searched date: 29 January 2020).
- Smith, Joah, “Explainer: Competing claims make northeast Asian sea a flashpoint,” REUTERS (25 July 2019), at <https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southkorea-russia-aircraft-explainer/explainer-competing-claims-make-northeast-asian-sea-a-flashpoint-idUSKCN1UK0NO> (searched date: 29 January 2020).
- Smith, Paul J., “The Senkaku/Diaoyu Island Controversy: A Crisis Postponed,” Naval War College Review, 66-2 (2013), pp. 27–44.
- Song, Jooyoung, “Understanding China's Response to North Korea's Provocations,” Asian Survey, 51-6 (2011), pp. 1134–1155.
- Sperandei, Maria, “Bridging Deterrence and Compellence: An Alternative Approach to the Study of Coercive Diplomacy,” International Studies Review, 8-2 (2006), pp. 253–280.
10.1111/j.1468-2486.2006.00573.x Google Scholar
- The U.S. Navy, “Surface Force Strategy: Return to Sea Control, Naval Surface Forces,” 2015, at <https://www.public.navy.mil/surfor/Documents/Surface_Forces_Strategy.pdf> (searched date: 1 February 2020).
- Tsukamoto, Takashi, “The Treaty of Peace with Japan and Takeshima's Legal Status,” Review of Island Studies (10 June 2013), at <https://www.spf.org/islandstudies/research/a00002.html> (searched date: 26 January 2020).
- Weinstein, Michael, “South Korea-Japan Dokdo/Takeshima Dispute: Toward Confrontation,” The Asia-Pacific Journal, 4-5 (2006), pp. 1–7. at <https://apjjf.org/-Michael-Weinstein/1685/article.html> (searched date: 26 January 2020).
- Weitz, Richard, “Countering the Somali Pirates: Harmonizing the International Response,” Journal of Strategic Security, 2-3 (2009), pp. 1–12.
10.5038/1944-0472.2.3.1 Google Scholar
- Wirtz, James J., “How Does Nuclear Deterrence Differ from Conventional Deterrence,” Strategic Studies Quarterly, 12-4 (2018), pp. 58–75.
- Yonhapnews, “S. Korea, China to Hold Talks on EEZ this Week” (23 July 2019a), at <https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20190723008300325> (searched date: 29 January 2020).
- Yonhapnews, “S. Korea launched Dokdo Defense Drill Amid Tension with Japan” (25 August 2019b), at <https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20190825000656315> (searched date: 26 January 2020).
- Yoon, Sukjoon, “Expanding the ROKN's Capabilities to Deal with the SLBM Threat from North Korea,” Naval War College Review, 70-2 (2017), pp. 49–74.
- Zagare, Frank C., “Toward a Reformulation of the Theory of Mutual Deterrence,” International Studies Quarterly, 29-2 (1985), pp. 155–169.
