Ebola Virus Dose Response Model for Aerosolized Exposures: Insights from Primate Data
Corresponding Author
Jade Mitchell
Department of Biosystems and Agricultural Engineering, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA
Address correspondence to Jade Mitchell, Biosystems and Agricultural Engineering Department, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI; jade@msu.edu
Search for more papers by this authorKara Dean
Department of Biosystems and Agricultural Engineering, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA
Search for more papers by this authorCharles Haas
Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, Drexel University, Philadelphia, PA, USA
Search for more papers by this authorCorresponding Author
Jade Mitchell
Department of Biosystems and Agricultural Engineering, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA
Address correspondence to Jade Mitchell, Biosystems and Agricultural Engineering Department, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI; jade@msu.edu
Search for more papers by this authorKara Dean
Department of Biosystems and Agricultural Engineering, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA
Search for more papers by this authorCharles Haas
Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, Drexel University, Philadelphia, PA, USA
Search for more papers by this authorAbstract
This study develops dose–response models for Ebolavirus using previously published data sets from the open literature. Two such articles were identified in which three different species of nonhuman primates were challenged by aerosolized Ebolavirus in order to study pathology and clinical disease progression. Dose groups were combined and pooled across each study in order to facilitate modeling. The endpoint of each experiment was death. The exponential and exact beta-Poisson models were fit to the data using maximum likelihood estimation. The exact beta-Poisson was deemed the recommended model because it more closely approximated the probability of response at low doses though both models provided a good fit. Although transmission is generally considered to be dominated by person-to-person contact, aerosolization is a possible route of exposure. If possible, this route of exposure could be particularly concerning for persons in occupational roles managing contaminated liquid wastes from patients being treated for Ebola infection and the wastewater community responsible for disinfection. Therefore, this study produces a necessary mathematical relationship between exposure dose and risk of death for the inhalation route of exposure that can support quantitative microbial risk assessment aimed at informing risk mitigation strategies including personal protection policies against occupational exposures.
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