Original Article
Differential Recovery Migration across the Rural–Urban Gradient: Minimal and Short-Term Population Gains for Rural Disaster-Affected Gulf Coast Counties
Katherine J. Curtis,
Jack DeWaard,
Elizabeth Fussell,
Rachel A. Rosenfeld,
Katherine J. Curtis
Department of Community and Environmental Sociology, University of Wisconsin—Madison
Search for more papers by this authorJack DeWaard
Department of Sociology, University of Minnesota—Twin Cities
Search for more papers by this authorElizabeth Fussell
Department of Sociology, Population Studies and Environment and Society, Brown University
Search for more papers by this authorRachel A. Rosenfeld
Department of Sociology, University of Wisconsin—Madison
Search for more papers by this authorKatherine J. Curtis,
Jack DeWaard,
Elizabeth Fussell,
Rachel A. Rosenfeld,
Katherine J. Curtis
Department of Community and Environmental Sociology, University of Wisconsin—Madison
Search for more papers by this authorJack DeWaard
Department of Sociology, University of Minnesota—Twin Cities
Search for more papers by this authorElizabeth Fussell
Department of Sociology, Population Studies and Environment and Society, Brown University
Search for more papers by this authorRachel A. Rosenfeld
Department of Sociology, University of Wisconsin—Madison
Search for more papers by this authorThis research was supported by center Grant # P2C HD047873 and training Grant # T32 HD07014 awarded to the Center for Demography and Ecology at the University of Wisconsin at Madison, center Grant # P2C HD041023 awarded to the Minnesota Population Center at the University of Minnesota—Twin Cities, and center Grant # P2C HD041020 at Brown University by the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, and by funds to Curtis from the Wisconsin Agricultural Experimental Station and the Wisconsin Alumni Research Foundation. Earlier versions of this paper were presented at the annual meetings of the Population Association of America and Rural Sociological Society. We thank participants in the paper sessions for valuable feedback, including Lori Hunter, Tim Slack, and Richelle Winkler. We also thank Elisa Avila for mapping assistance, and David Egan-Robertson and Caitlin Bourbeau at the Applied Population Laboratory at the University of Wisconsin—Madison for data and visualization expertise. Finally, we thank the anonymous reviewers for their useful insights.
Abstract
Places affected or threatened by extreme environmental disturbances confront a number of significant issues, including whether their populations will stay the same or change through migration. Research on Hurricanes Katrina and Rita shows some displaced residents returned to their disaster-affected communities once the built environment was restored, new migrants settled in affected places as part of the rebuilding effort, and the regional migration system grew more urbanized and spatially concentrated during post-disaster years. Research also shows that not all disaster-affected places recovered their populations. Our study examines whether differential recovery is systematically patterned along the rural–urban gradient. Using U.S. Census Bureau estimates and IRS county-to-county migration data, we investigate whether the 2005 hurricane season differentially exacerbated or altered previous migration trends across a rural–urban gradient that incorporates proximity to metropolitan areas and disaster-related housing loss. We find a rural–urban differential in Gulf Coast recovery migration: The disaster boosted migration among non-metropolitan counties, yet these increases were smaller and short-lived compared to the patterns found for metropolitan counties, most especially high loss metropolitan counties. Our findings encourage theories of environmental migration to incorporate spatial differentiation and scenarios of environmental changes to account for differential impacts on settlement patterns across the rural–urban continuum.
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